This article takes more than a little nerve, as we will be reflecting on the advice we've been giving, all of which is NOT guaranteed of course. For some reason, it always seems easier to be wrong than right, but that may not necessarily be so. Maybe we're just more obsessed with our failures than our successes. Anyway, both stock and stock market predictions are hazardous, but if you won't stick your neck out, then you really have nothing to say.

Our first pick was on April 20, 1998, where we recommended Pfizer at 113 3/8, up 8 3/16 for the day! From here it went to a high of 121 3/4 the next day, and then to a low of 101 1/4 on May 27, after a few aging Romeos bit the dust following too much Viagra romance. Throughout this slide, we remained optimistic about the stock. I still own Pfizer and would like to buy more; it closed today at 116 down 2-1/2 .

On April 29, 1998 the market was struggling with the notion that the Fed might hike interest rates at their May 19 meeting. We bet that there would be no hike because earnings were not excessive, it's an election year and the Fed is politically sensitive, and the Asian effect is not over. There was no rate hike.

May 6, 1998 was the date of our EntreMed article. This was the Biotech that closed the previous Friday at 12 1/6, was the subject of a New York Times article over the weekend, and then opened Monday at 82, and closed at 51 13/16 up 39 3/4! We urged doing nothing now, and just keeping an eye on it, as clinical trials were 12- 18 months away, aside from the volatility that these issues are known for. EntreMed closed at a low of 23 15/16 on June 9, after touching an inter-day low of 23 1/16. The stock has since recovered to today's close of 30 3/8, which no doubt is of little comfort to those who paid 80 plus!

On May 13 we wrote about Novell and our confidence in their C.E.O. Eric Schmidt. The stock closed at 11, up 7/16. Our suggestion was that if the stock took a breather in the next week or so, you might consider getting in. You had three brief chances to get in slightly lower, with Novell touching lows of 10 5/8 on May 14, and 10 ½ on both May 15 and May 18. Today, Novell was up 7/16 at 13 3/8 on over 9.2 million shares, which is a 12 month closing high. We ended that article by noting that "This stock has burned a lot of people including yours truly, but they say every dog has its day. You know, I think I hear barking in the distance." I hope that dog gets close enough to bite me in the rear - I can use the profits!

On May 18 we cautioned you not to be too greedy when waiting to buy into Novell, when we advised "Hindsight, with its unfailing vision, would say that when you decide to buy on weakness, don't be a total pig and pray for a big drop. A one-half point saving on a potentially hot small stock is pretty good." Interestingly, after the stock closed at 11, it never went lower than 10-1/2.

The May 29, 1998 article, written during particularly choppy markets, urged the adherence to Stock Lent, with no crazy investments and no sporty speculations. This advice was good through the lows reached on June 15, with the Dow Jones Industrials down 262 points to 8628, Dow Jones Transports down 10 to 3337, Dow Jones Utilities up 7 to 292, the Nasdaq down 63 to 1716, the Russell 2000 down 23 to 434, the Amex down 31 to 684, and the S&P 500 down 14 to 1077.

The same May 29 article covered the proposed merger of Sierra Pacific Resources (SRP) and Nevada Power (NVP), and suggested that their stocks be bought. Since then, SRP went from 34 5/16 to 36, and NVP went from 23 7/8 to 25. That's pretty good for a conservative investment paying a decent dividend. In the 1-1/2 months since then, the Dow Jones Utilities are up 2%, SRP is up over 4.5%, and NVP is up 4%.

The June 12 article had recommendations of American Home Products (AHP) at 51, Pfizer (PFE) again at 109 5/16, and Warner Lambert (WLA) at 62. Today AHP closed at 51 3/8, PFE at 116, and WLA at 78 3/16. This illustrates the benefits of diversification, even within an industry group.

On June 15 we must have sent our crystal ball out for repairs, as we believed that the Asian effect could be more pervasive throughout our economy than thought earlier. Even though this may well be the case, in fact the market made its lows on this day for this market move. In the past month, the Dow Jones Industrials are up 606 points to 9234, Dow Jones Transports up 212 to 3549, Dow Jones Utilities down 1 to 291, the Nasdaq up 279 to 1995, the Russell 2000 up 28 to 462, the Amex up 46 to 730, and the S&P 500 up 98 to 1175.

Our June 17 article was still incorrectly cautious, although there are many smaller stocks that have gone nowhere. Our recommendation was Medtronic which closed at 59 11/16 up 3 1/4. We had hoped you might be able to get in 4-6 points lower, but the lowest close after this was June 19, when it closed at 58 5/8 down 1 7/16. Today it closed at 66 13/16 - 3/8.

On June 24 we discussed our interest in Everest Reinsurance, which closed at 37 7/8. They have had good earnings through March 31, 1998, have a low P.E., and are in that desirable financial services area, and are a potential acquisition target. It closed today at 37 11/16, up 3/16.

The June 29 article covered Hyseq, which screens large samples of DNA with an advanced sequencing chip. The stock was up 3/4 at 10 7/8, and we suggested buying in the low 10's or high 9's. Hyseq closed at 10 down 1/8, and I think our suggestion is still sound.

July 8 was our unhappiness report. We had told a colleague on July 6 that we intended to shortly write about Affymetrix which closed on the 6th at 24 5/8. On the 8th a large brokerage house initiated coverage with a buy rating. I own Affymetrix and intend to buy more in the future. It closed today at 28 7/8, down 7/16.

Finally, we have written a number of times that near term market guidance would come from second quarter earnings reports that would be coming in starting July 10. As we have just finished our fourth day of reporting, we have had mixed results. But on balance there has been more good news than bad, and the somewhat stronger stock market these past days is indicative of that. Remember that the stock market is still distorted, with many secondary and tertiary stocks getting beat up, while many High-Tech's and Internet's have been going up big-time. Stay tuned.

The Market Pro - July 15, 1998