Admiral's Stock Advice - Subject: Industry Analysis

Industry Analysis: Internet

[Man With Data]


All these new capitalists thought they re-invented the money machine, but all they really did was re-discover the glory of tulip madness.

This market has been more of the same. As we noted in our article of May 24, 1999, "historically, the market is down in the Spring, reaching a seasonal bottom around June 25. At least at that time, investors start to anticipate positive earnings reports starting around July 10. Hopefully, there will be few negative pre-announcements to unsettle investors. In the meantime the old favorites will have a tough time. They are great stocks, but this isn't their time for now. Resist the temptation to buy in too soon, as you probably will get better buying opportunities in the weeks ahead." If you followed that advice, you are no doubt better off for it.

Also on May 24, we observed "one group that has been hammered in recent weeks are the INTERNETS. Today just added to the disaster. In case you haven't kept up with this budding fiasco, look at what's been happening", and just look at these updated disasters:

StockSymbol12 month rangeMay 24TodayToday's Change
Crosswalk.comAMEN1 7/8 - 40129 5/8-1/2
Amazon.comAMZN18 3/8 - 221 1/411792-13 13/16
American OnlineAOL17 1/4 - 17511990-9
Books-A-MillionBAMM2 1/4 - 479 3/167 1/4-1/4
CD NowCDNW7 - 39 1/418 3/414 7/8-1 3/16
Cyberian OutpostCOOL5 15/16 - 45139-9/16
EBAYEBAY8 7/16 - 234183 1/4136-29 7/8
Egghead.comEGGS4 5/16 - 40 1/411 3/410-5/8
Earthlink NetworkELNK19 - 99 3/850 5/837 1/4-6 5/8
IntervuITVU5 1/8 - 8238 7/1633 1/4-3 7/8
Creative ComputersMALL1 1/8 - 17 1/834 1/166 7/16-23/32
Mindspring EnterprisesMSPG19 3/8 - 13373 1/456 3/4-7 5/8
NavarreNAVR2 3/16 - 2714 1/49 3/4-3/4
Open MarketOMKT4 1/4 - 2712 13/1612 1/16-9/16
OnsaleONSL10 5/8 -10820 3/415 11/16-3/8
YahooYHOO27 3/4 - 244137 7/8119 1/4-16

Yes indeedy, buying the INTERNETS is so exciting! What a thrill! Those giant up-moves were supposed to go on indefinitely, right? Wrong, 8-ball. If you quit your job to play these, and play is the right term, you're nuts. And if you got your capital from your retirement funds, you're double nuts. All these new capitalists thought they re-invented the money machine, but all they really did was re-discover the glory of tulip madness. One final thought for the greenhorns - a stock is only worth what someone will pay for it. And if you think you can predict a low, and say with blind confidence "this is a great stock, it can"t go any lower than this", then you surely are on the road to ruin. I sincerely hope that none of our readers play the deadly game of "how low is low".

Caution remains in order. Although I still think that the market will be higher than now at year- end, we will have some choppy times between now and then. As before, remember that the ball game for the old favorites is temporarily over, so don't jump at early "bargain" prices. Patience should be rewarded, and that means keep accumulating a little cash. Stay tuned.

The Market Pro - June 14, 1999


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