Admiral's Stock Advice - Subject: Industry Analysis

Industry Analysis: Biotech

[Man With Data]


I'm certain that most of you are well aware of the huge divide between large Cap stocks and the rest of the field. Nowhere is this more apparent than the Biotechs...

With the major stock market indices at record highs, the average guy who doesn't know much about the market is sure that all investors are getting rich. I'm certain that most of you are well aware of the huge divide between large Cap stocks and the rest of the field. Nowhere is this more apparent than the Biotechs, which by and large have had the hell kicked out of them.

This is particularly ironic in view of the fact that this will be a record year for the number of Biotech drugs receiving FDA approval. It is particularly disgusting to see the Internet stocks go through the roof, when some of them will need to sell their services to everyone in the world in order to be profitable. Biotechs are pretty immune to the goings-on in Asia and offer potential profits to those with the guts to buy them, and more importantly, the guts to hold them.

This is a great time to get into these stocks, but it is certainly not for the faint-hearted. Most of the group are far from their highs, and a number of them are great buys in my judgement, as long as your investment time horizon is at least 3 years. To illustrate how beat-up these stocks are, I am listing those stocks that are reasonably priced and have promising drugs under development. Some of these are not strictly Biotechs; but they are very interesting as they are either into genetics, or some unique drug or therapy. The following list shows today's close, and the 52 week low and high. I have indicated which ones I own with an asterisk (*)

CompanyCloseLowHighOwned by the Market Pro
AFFYMETRIX INC.28 5/821 1/849 7/8*
AGOURON PHARMACEUTICALS29 ½2356 ½*
AMGEN INC.72 11/1644 7/874 1/8 
AMYLIN PHARMACEUTICALS3 11/162 ½15 ½ 
ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS3 7/1636 ½ 
ARQULE INC.11 7/810 1/429 1/4 
BIOGEN INC.57 5/830 1/459 1/8 
CREATIVE BIOMOLECULES3 15/163 3/411 5/8 
CELL GENYSIS7 3/44 7/812 3/4*
CEPHALON INC.7 ½6 3/416 1/8 
COR THERAPEUTICS14 5/88 5/826 1/8 
CELLPRO INC.3 1/425 7/8 
CYTOGEN CORP.1 11/325/84 7/8 
GENOME THERAPEUTICS CORP.4 3/44 7/169 7/8*
GILEAD SCIENCES23 13/1622 3/847 1/4 
HUMAN GENOME SCIENCES39 7/83046 3/4 
HYSEQ INC.10 ½7 7/821 5/8*
ICOS CORP.20 15/16824 ½ 
IMMUNE RESPONSE CORP.12 5/167 3/819 11/16 
IMMULOGIC PHARMACEUTICAL1 ½1 1/44 1/8*
INCYTE PHARMACEUTICALS INC.41 19/3229 13/1651 
INHALE THERAPEUTIC SYSTEMS28 15/1618 3/437 1/4 
INTERNEURON PHARM.4 9/323 1/822 
ISIS PHARMACEUTICALS14 1/41118 5/8*
LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS12 5/810 7/818 3/8*
MAGAININ PHARMACEUTICALS5 5/84 1/412 1/8 
MOLECULAR DYMAMICS11 ½8 5/828 1/8*
MILLENNIUM PHARMACEUTICALS17 1/412 1/422 3/8*
MEDCO RESEARCH INC.21 7/810 3/826 5/8 
MIRAVANT MEDICAL TECH.25 3/818 5/872 
MISONIX7 1/45 ½15 11/16*
MYCOGEN CORP.23 15/1615 7/825 ½ 
NEORX CORP.4 13/163 3/49 3/4 
NOVEN PHARMACEUTICALS5 3/45 1/810 7/8*
NEUROGEN CORP.15 ½12 3/428 3/4 
PROTEIN DESIGN LABS23 ½20 ½51 ½ 
RIBI IMMUNOCHEM RESEARCH4 5/83 7 166 1/4 
SCIOS INC.8 3/46 3/813 5/8 
SUGEN INC.1611 5/821 ½ 
T CELL SCIENCES2 3/41 3/84 9/16 
THERATECH INC.10712 1/8*
THERAGENICS16 ½12 3/435 3/8 
U.S. BIOSCIENCE7 3/87 1/413 ½ 
UNIMED PHARMACEUTICALS5 1/44 1/48 3/4 
VICAL INC.16 7/810 5/819 
VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS21 ½18 3/441 

As it is not possible to predict with great accuracy which stocks will be the big winners, I have created my own Biotech mutual fund of sorts. There is no substitute for doing your homework, but it should be rewarding. The Biotechs are fraught with danger, but in my judgement their potential is great. Stay tuned.

The Market Pro - July 20, 1998


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