![]() ...please remember the Saudis who obviously have more on their minds than halvah or roast lamb, as they are paying up to $80 a pill [for Viagra] on the black market. |
It's helpful that today the market is closed, to let us get a little perspective. And when you want to take a fresh look at a stock like Pfizer, you need all the perspective you can get. The women say you can't be too rich or too thin. So we can say the same about you can't have too much perspective, especially when you're getting killed. When we last visited Pfizer on Wednesday, prescriptions in week five were 278,715, of which 24,000 were refills. I figure it must be a big hit, as I have not heard The National Organization for Women complaining that they're getting too much action. It may be significant that their acronym is NOW (!). Women can be so demanding. Last Monday Pfizer hit a low of 105, and than a major brokerage house raised their rating from buy to strong buy, with a price target raised to 136 from 134. The stock promptly went to 110 11/16, the high for the day, where it closed up 6 1/16 on volume of 5.7 million shares. On Tuesday it was up 2 3/16 to 112 7/8 on 7.6 million shares. Wednesday saw a lot of profit taking; it went to 114 3/16 right after the opening, drifted down to 112 1/8 in mid- morning, and closed at 112 3/16, down 1/16 on 3.5 million shares. That's when we wrote that it was "subject to severe corrections," but that we expect the stock to work higher. Thursday was a weak market day and Pfizer went along, losing 3 11/16 to 109 1/8 on 6.3 million shares. Friday was the tough one. It opened at 109 3/8 up 1/4, and went to 109 7/8 up 3/4. Later in the morning the news hit, that six men died after taking Viagra, which Pfizer reported to the FDA. Pfizer and the FDA are investigating, and they do not know whether this was due to drug interaction or is unrelated to Viagra. I wouldn't think there is any material liability exposure, as this is a prescription drug with clearly stated labeling that it should not be taken by men who are taking nitrates. Over 1 million prescriptions have been filled by now, and maybe 16 guys died eating milk and cookies. I'll bet the 16 guys who left us would rather have gone, reaching for rear ends than reaching for milk and cookies. Or even oatmeal. As we always strive for balance, please remember the Saudis who obviously have more on their minds than halvah or roast lamb, as they are paying up to $80 a pill on the black market. Now we learn that Canadians are coming down in droves to get prescriptions filled. Canadian Customs will allow shipment to Canada as long as personal use does not exceed 3 months. I have even heard of a foreign buyer trying to fill 500,000 prescriptions! I think it would be for more than 1 user. That's probably a pretty good bet. Finally, for sure this stock is a speculator's sweetheart, as both put option and call option volumes are soaring. However, let's not lose sight of the fact that Pfizer is a premier drug company with many drugs on the market, and many in the pipeline. In a later column we'll get into their drug portfolio, and I'm sure it will be an eye opener for even those who believe they know a lot about this company. In the meantime, I suggest you hold on to your stock if you own any, and buy more on weakness. If you don't have a position, you might consider buying on the opening tomorrow, around the 105's. A stock like this at these prices requires a lot of patience so that you don't get scared out by the volatility. I expect patience to be well rewarded. Stay tuned.
The Market Pro - May 25, 1998
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