On Monday we revisited Novell. Today it's Pfizer's turn. Pfizer is a lot of great drugs, and a great pipeline. But right now, the story is Viagra. This is more than the Mother of all drugs - it is the Godzilla of all drugs!

Let's begin by looking at prescriptions. The previous blockbuster was another drug company's heart medicine, and it did a whopping 2,000 plus in the first week. We have five weeks data on Godzilla, beginning the week of April 10, and ending the week of May 8. Week one was 36,263, week two 113,134, week three 207,868, week four 269,842, and week five was 278,715! Now that is one hell of a lot of romance, any way you look at it!

The refills are also impressive. Starting in week four, and included in the above numbers, refills were 16,000, and were 24,000 in week five. Ah, spring! What timing for bringing out a love pill! I previously told you that the black market for Viagra was selling in Israel for $30 a pop (vs. $10 in the U.S.), indicating that the troops were interested in more than corned beef. Well they have nothing on the Saudis. Even though Viagra is still not approved there, I guess money is no object as they are buying on the black market for up to $80 a pill!

I don't know what Pfizer's timetable is for marketing internationally, but no doubt they're proceeding for all necessary governmental approvals. The above anecdotes are only for giving you a hint of potential world-wide interest and demand. You will hear a lot of smart analysts saying that this unprecedented demand is already in the price of the stock. But I don't believe it.

These prescriptions keep increasing and no one can provide a firm estimate of potential sales. When investors can't determine the magnitude of sales and profits, their imaginations take hold and the stock could go much higher. Remember that because of the stock's high price - it closed today at 112 13/16 - it is subject to severe corrections. However I expect the stock to work higher. Don't let the price scare you; the only thing that counts is the percent you make on your money for any given period of time. You can bet your ass that Pfizer has a better chance of doubling to 225, than many 2 dollar stocks have of going to 4.

I also hear anecdotes of doctors prescribing Viagra to women, to increase their libido. Anyway, I'm betting that investors will receive about as much bang for their buck as Viagra users do! Remember that ordinarily there is a lady on the receiving end of this medicinal marvel, and the numbers indicate that there are many satisfied customers. Gee, I never knew that capitalists could be so romantic. Especially when there's money to be made. Stay tuned.

The Market Pro - May 20, 1998