Career Direction - Career and Management Articles

Fourth Quarter Blues
by Frank Stevens

[Bullseye]

Welcome Baywalk readers to the October edition of Creating Success Viewpoint on Baywalk.com. This month we take a look at not crying over spilled milk. I hope you enjoy: "Fourth Quarter Blues"

Greetings. No, this is not my kick off classic article for the football season. This month I would like to spend some time looking at companies' perspectives of business results and the dreaded "fourth quarter" earnings' reports.

First I would like to make a statement: "By the time you reach the fourth quarter, the game is generally over in business!"

Are you having trouble swallowing that statement? If the answer is yes, you are not alone. Drawing from sports and our national history, we Americans love the story of the last minute play or efforts of the hero/heroine that turns the game/war/etc. around and makes us winners. Where does that fantasy come from anyway? Well, in most sports, the game isn't over until it's over. You are all familiar with the phrase, "The game is not over till the fat lady sings." Baseball, tennis, and golf are all three games where there are no time limits for completing the game. In baseball and tennis, as long as the game is not over, a last minute effort can usually turn around the game results. We generally believe that a heroic effort can save the day.

However, although golf has no time limit, you reach a point in a golf match where the game is over, yet you are still out on the course. Why? Golf is a game that is very similar to business operations. Perhaps that is why business men and women love to play golf. Golf is a game where you are attempting to beat par, the expected score for the course. If you play true to your ability, you are successful, even when playing a better player as a result of the handicapping system. However, if on your first 15 holes you played bogey golf (1 extra shot per hole over the expected score), it doesn't matter what you do on the last three holes; you will not beat par.

Which leads me back to business. By the time the fourth quarter rolls around, the game is generally over. If you are way ahead of projections, or right on projections, chances are pretty good you will finish the year a winner. Chances of a catastrophe occurring during the fourth quarter are as rare as miracles occurring during the fourth quarter. Alternatively, companies that under-performed the first, second, and third quarters of the year are generally doomed to end the year missing their financial goals. In most scenarios, all the crying, foot stomping, yelling, overtime, and layoffs, are not going to change the bottom line.

So, what do you do? First, lay out a plan for the fourth quarter that will help minimize the negative impact on the company's annual results. Second, start now to understand what happened this past year and determine what, when, and how you could initiate an effort to turn around company results. Third, begin preparation for next year by starting your strategic planning process while today's pain / issues are fresh in your mind. Fourth, stop kicking yourself, your team, your family, and your cat and dog for your fourth quarter blues.

I know you hate it, but you are only human after all. -- See you next month!




Frank Stevens, a partner with Navigant Consulting, helps businesses improve their operating performance. Visit their web page at Navigantconsulting.com and contact him at either fstevens@pcit.com or (714) 544-2753.

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